Artsakh

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Postby Armenian on Mon Jun 04, 2007 1:42 am

Lernakan wrote:Armenian internet community: Armenian politicians endanger existence of Armenian nation

Any politician or civil servant, no matter what his previous merit to the country is, is traitor of his home country and enemy of his nation if he proposes to surrender Armenian territory,” says a statement by Armenian online resources received by REGNUM.


Enker Lernakan, be careful of internet politicking.

No one is giving away the liberated territories.

Not even a square meter of our liberated territories can be in discussion. Besides the fact that the territories in question belong to Armenians, they are also vital for the Armenian Republic militarily and economically. What's more, most of the lands in question are already privatized and divided up amongst the native population in Artsakh. The Artsakh military, and the general population there, will fight to the last soul to ensure their hold on every square meter of the liberated territories.

Thus, anyone that even attempts to give up any amount of our liberated lands will be killed promptly. There are many individuals, organizations, associations, militants, etc, that will make sure that such an attempt does not go unpunished. Have no doubt.

In my opinion, such rumors about "imminent" deals being made with Turks/Azeris most probably stem from foreign intelligence services and the political manipulations of certain major powers interested in the region. These anti-Armenian forces are attempting to start a social/political upheaval within the Armenian Republic similar to what they have done elsewhere.

Several moths ago the big rumor was that Kocharyan and company had struck a deal to sell Artsakh to the Azeris for 9 billion US dollars. Sadly, because the ruling administration is hated by the hungry masses, there were many Armenians willing to believe the dark fairy tale in question.

Just realize that these dangerous rumors begin circulating around election times. Several weeks ago it was the elections in Armenia. And now, its the upcoming elections in Artsakh. Nonetheless, no one, especially the dominant Artsakhtsi establishment in Yerevan and Stepanakert, is willing to give away any of our liberated lands.

I fear, however, that some well meaning but ignorant Armenian, feeling betrayed and distraught by such rumors, may attempt to bring harm to our leadership by assassination. If such an attack occurs against the current leadership in Yerevan and/or Stepanakert, it will only serve to weaken the Armenian Republic. Moreover, such an attack will only serve to weaken Armenia's vital alliance with Russia and Iran and it will only serve to endanger the unique internal stability that our nation has thus far enjoyed.

A violent uprising against the current leadership in Armenia and Artsakh is what our enemies want, it's what certain major powers want. The aforementioned have been seeking an internal uprising, a social upheaval in the Armenian Republic. Sadly, because the general public generally speaking only understands the politics of the stomach, Armenia today is in danger of falling victim to foreign manipulation. In this respect, I have more confidence in Moscow and Tehran not allowing Armenian politicians too veer to far off course.

Nevertheless, it's always good to be vigilant.
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Postby Ararat on Mon Jun 04, 2007 7:09 pm

Armenian

After some discussions the AAO youngs decided to join to this declaration.

As i always stated there is a huge problem with Artzakh issue. The problem is that the whole state mashine is propagating a solution where we must give lands. Personally i think that Kocharyan is not a giver. But imagine that some dark forces decide to eliminate the 2-3 persons who for sure will not give the lands then who will come next?

The Artur Bagdasaryan who is semitraitor already. Raffi Hovhanesyan who just entered the parliament because some big money in USA buyed his presence in parliament. The Bargavach with the leader that don't understand all aspect of international politics ? Who.. ? The hanrapetakan oligarchs who will be completly desoriented. Even dashnaks cannot take the situation in full control in such case...

It is completly absurd that such a fundamental question of armenians life depends from the will of 2-3 people.
The whole state mashine should change his logic. the whole state mashine should have a such a ideology where just one word about giving lands will create a huge problems for a politician.

Today the situation is completly upside down. Today if a politician says that he is against giving lands then his political carrier is finished in the middle term. More you cry about tolerance toward turks and azeris more you have chance to go up, ... it is crazy but it is a fact.

Several moths ago the big rumor was that Kocharyan and company had struck a deal to sell Artsakh to the Azeris for 9 billion US dollars.


The members of the organisation who said this, today have problems with the judicial system. ... coincidence or ...

This declaration is not against anyone precisely. This declaration is against those who speak about "giving our lands". Nobody forces them to speak about it. They just must control their tongues
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Postby Ararat on Mon Jun 04, 2007 7:33 pm

I just want to add something

It is abnormal when on the site of the USA embassy we find such a thing

Bryza would not identify the unresolved issues, but he outlined some of the basic principles already reached for a potential resolution. The two sides have agreed on the return of districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh that are also under ethnic Armenian control.


and nobody from the Foreign ministry and so called patriotic parties is reacting to it !!! This is crazy. This guy is saying that Armenia already agreed, and this is not a rumour from i don't what marginal newspaper. This is the representive of State department who says this and our government is keeping a mysterious silence.... It is logical that the real patriots thing that this silence is equal to agreedness..
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Postby Armanen on Mon Jun 04, 2007 10:13 pm

In this respect, I have more confidence in Moscow and Tehran not allowing Armenian politicians too veer to far off course.


I also think it's in the interest of Russia and Iran to keep the status quo, even though that Russian official made the statement about Russia respecting the territorial integrity of azerbaijan.
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Postby Lernakan on Tue Jun 05, 2007 9:04 pm

Image


PERSONALITY OF THE ARMENIAN PRESIDENT AS A SEPARATE FACTOR IN THE KARABAKH SETTLEMENT, OR WHY ROBERT KOCHARIAN ANNOYS AZERBAIJAN


There is an opinion, not so groundless, that in 1998 the Western community recognized the election of a citizen of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic Robert Kocharian as President of Armenia just by the reason that he and no-one else, according to the Westerners, was able to pacify the Karabakh people in case if some probable compromise political solution of the Karabakh conflict, but not acceptable for the NKR, appeared. Such opinion was based on the fact that Robert Kocharian was one of the founders and the leader of the movement of the Karabakh Armenians for their real self-determination (i.e. for secession from Azerbaijan), he headed the unrecognized republic in the years of war, and therefore enjoyed undisputed respect in the Karabakh society. In other words, the person of Robert Kocharian was taken by the Western community as a separate, maybe the major factor in the issue of the Karabakh settlement.
To be fair it is necessary to note that former President of Azerbaijan Heydar Aliyev was also no less equal factor in the peace process. According to the international mediators, it was only he who could persuade his fellow compatriots to accept the solution on the basis of reciprocal concessions, not popular for Azerbaijan.
However, let us turn back to Robert Kocharian’s factor. In 1998 he was also accepted by the Armenian society, which was tired of the Karabakh problem and saw in Robert Kocharian just such a political figure who was able not only to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, but also to overcome the negative consequences of the government of the Levon Ter-Petrossian administration, the first Armenian President.
Such Western approach to the settlement was the main reason for the OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairmen to transform the format of the negotiations with participation of the Karabakh party into a bilateral dialogue of the presidents of the two countries. First it seemed that the tactics, chosen by international mediators, was correct. At least, as they admitted, the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents were close to agreement on the main principles of the settlement twice. For the first time it was on the eve of the OSCE Istanbul Summit (1999), and the second time it was in 2001, after the Key-West talks (Florida, USA). And if in the first case, the agreement was allegedly not achieved due to the terrorist act in the Armenian Parliament, then in the second case it was the failure of the basic factor – Heydar Aliyev, who to the great astonishment of the mediators, disavowed his own verbal promises, given in Key-West.
As a result, it was Robert Kocharian who in general has justified the hopes of international mediators twice, as far as the failures that took place in the peace process were not his fault. Robert Kocharian’s position (i.e. his political weight) in the Karabakh issue had become significantly stronger after Key-West, which worried the mediators. It was the mediator’s plans that finally failed…
It seems that after Key-West the Western community had some plans to shatter Robert Kocharian’s positions. And it was possible to do only within the internal political situation inside Armenia. Let us just remember the recommendations made by various representatives of the Western structures on the eve of the presidential election in Armenia. All they hinted directly or indirectly that the fate of the Karabakh issue will mostly depend on the degree of fairness of the presidential election. At the same time they unequivocally supported those forces that challenged Robert Kocharian’s presidency. The emphasis, as it was expected, was put on Robert Kocharian’s inability and unwillingness to build a developed democracy in Armenia, and not on the Karabakh problem (where Robert Kocharian’s positions were solid enough). When Robert Kocharian’s opponents touched upon the Karabakh issue, as a rule they voiced the well-known position of the official Stepanakert that the bilateral talks of the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents had no perspective, as well as insisted on the necessity of equal participation of the Karabakh side in the peace process. The Armenian opposition tried to neutralize possible support to Robert Kocharian’s candidature by Nagorno Karabakh.
The above-said does not mean that the West wished to get rid of Robert Kocharian once and for all. No at all. They only needed more dirigible Robert Kocharian in the same quality of a separate factor in the Karabakh settlement. The extremely negative assessments, given by the western observers to the results of the election were aimed at achieving that goal. After the presidential elections in Armenia and Azerbaijan recommendations started to come from the European structures one after the other, proposing unilateral concessions from Armenia in the Karabakh issue, as if they were had been sent by one command. Those documents spoke nothing about the necessity of taking into account the opinion of the Karabakh side as well.
However, the Heydar Aliyev’s disavowal of the verbal Key West arrangements allowed Robert Kocharian (no matter, dirigible or less dirigible from outside) to harden his position in the Karabakh settlement, to require the Karabakh party’s joining the negotiations, letting himself off the burden of the former responsibility before the Armenian and Nagorno Karabakh societies for the further fate of the Karabakh problem.
Most vividly the changed position of President Robert Kocharian was expressed in his recent speech before the PACE Deputies in Strasburg. The Armenian President voiced his position with no less clarity, when he answered the questions by the PACE Deputies and mass media. As a matter of fact in Strasburg Robert Kocharian made it clear for the West that the denial of the Key West principles in the peace process may be compensated only by one thing – the international recognition of Nagorno Karabakh. Robert Kocharian’s position was so impeccable that he even let himself emotional words that he was proud of his participation in the military actions in Karabakh and with the results of the military confrontation with Azerbaijan.
Such behavior of the President Robert Kocharian was a real revelation for the Azerbaijani representatives in PACE. Apparently, they also felt that Robert Kocharian’s position was invulnerable: everything that Azerbaijanis wanted to tell the international community, the Armenian President voiced by himself. That is why the Azerbaijani political circles are so nervous now. They in Baku also understood the whole significance of the factor of Robert Kocharian, which, after Heydar Aliyev had passed away, started to work independently. That is why all those ridiculous statements by the Azerbaijani authorities about the necessity of bringing an action against Robert Kocharian at the international court for the alleged offence of Azerbaijan and Azerbaijani people are only raising the his rating, not only in the West, but also in Armenia. It is not by accident that practically all opposition forces of the country in general positively reacted to the statement by the Armenian President in Strasburg
However, former Co-Chairman of the Social-Democratic Party of Azerbaijan (SDPA) Zardusht Alizadeh gave the most precise comment to the new situation. The provocative statement, as the Azerbaijanis find it, delivered by Robert Kocharian in Strasburg, is nothing else but a result of the failure of the Azerbaijani diplomacy in the Karabakh issue. And we would add: thanks to not so modest successes of the Armenian diplomacy as well.


http://www.defacto.am/index.php?OP=171966464
www.ArmenianHighland.com

Yes Tseghakron Em - Yev aha K'yerdnum Vahagni Achi Vrah Yerbek Chmexanchel Ukhtis Dem - Aprel, Gorcel u Mernel Vorpes Tsexamard.
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Postby Lernakan on Tue Jun 05, 2007 9:18 pm

Armenian wrote:
Lernakan wrote:Enker Armenian, could you share your thoughts with us on this matter?


About what in particular enker, Armen Ayvazyan's interview?

Incidentally, I had the pleasure of meeting Dr. Ayvazyan in person when he was visiting New York City several weeks ago. I also attended a couple of his speeches. His website has some very good research materials regarding geopolitical and historical matters. You should visit it if you have not done so already.

Armen Ayvazyan's website: http://www.hayq.org/index.php?p=13&l=arm

The following video of his book presentation is very interesting: http://www.bvahan.com/ArmenianWay/video ... vazyan.mpg

The following is his radio interview regarding Artsakh: http://www.vem.am/files/programs/8/a_ayvazyan_II.MP3


No, I meant about the liberated territories but you already answered it. I also think that no one will give those territories but as Ararat says the silence by official Yerevan on this issue gives some doubts.

Thanks for the links I have read some of the articles on his website and they are very interesting.
www.ArmenianHighland.com

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Postby Armenian on Wed Jun 06, 2007 2:11 am

David Simonyan: Surrender of territories to Azerbaijan: strategic consequences for Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh

REGNUM publishes the article of security expert David Simonyan (Yerevan), which reflects his vision of the future of the Karabakh conflict. The article is published in the author's wording.

In the light of the continuing discourse on how to preserve the "favorable window of opportunities" in the Karabakh peace process, people in Armenia keep actively talking about the settlement principles that have reportedly been presented to the Armenian and Azeri presidents for discussion and possible signing. These principles stipulate that Armenian troops be withdrawn from the liberated territories and the territories, except for the Lachin corridor, be given back to Azerbaijan.

The article is about the importance the liberated territory has for ensuring the key element of Armenia's national security – its military component. When speaking about Armenia, you should keep in mind two states, the Republic of Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR), who are fully integrated in military and economic terms. As you may know, military security is a condition of a state that allows it to exclude any damage to its vital interests that can be caused by threat or practical armed violence.

The given analysis is based on an axiom that is generally accepted among experts: for ensuring national security one should be ready for the worst scenario. And now, let's more thoroughly consider the significance the liberated territory has for ensuring the military security of Armenia (RA and NKR). The military conflict of 1991-1994 has improved the quality of the following elements of the military-strategic position of the Armenian states:

1. Frontline configuration

The present configuration of the frontline is optimal for the Armenian side. The southern flank of the Artsakh front is shielded by the Iranian border, the northern flank – by the hard-to-access Mrav mountain range. In the east – from the mountains of Mrav to the river Arax – the Armenian side has a well-fortified multi-echelon defense line. Should the Armenian side give back the territories of six districts and keep only Lachin, the total frontline of the two Armenian states with Azerbaijan, including Nakhichevan, will get 450 km longer to 1,100 km. The frontline between Artsakh and Azerbaijan will lengthen by 150 km to 360 km. For you to have the full picture of how long a border Armenia will have with its conflicting neighbors, we should remind you that Armenia also has a poorly protected 268 km border with Turkey.

In order to effectively fortify the extended frontline the Armenian side will have to mobilize substantial human and financial resources. First, the Armenian side will have to increase its army personnel (the Armed Forces of Armenia and the Defense Army of Artsakh (Karabakh)) and, therefore, to prolong the compulsory service term for privates and to enroll contract officers. Second, after withdrawing troops, the Armenian side will have to undertake big expenses to create new defense lines. To carry out the above measures, the Armenian side will have to augment its military budget, but to do this, it will have to further curtail its scarce social financing and to face the ensuing negative consequences.

2. Depth of defense

The liberated territories have allowed the Armenian side to ensure the minimum defense depth and to solve several important strategic problems: First, the present depth of defense has allowed the Armenian side to form a multi-echelon defense line. Should the first line be broken, the Armenian side will be able to resist on the following ones and to keep the enemy outside Artsakh until additional troops come from Armenia.

Second, the central densely-populated areas of Artsakh, including its capital, Stepanakert, as well as the settlements of the Goris, Kapan and Meghri districts of Armenia have become inaccessible for shelling by Azeri artillery and multiple rocket launching systems (BM-21 "Grad"). Third, by liberating the Zangelan, Jebrail and Fizuli districts and moving the frontline over 100 km eastward, the Armenian side has liquidated the threat to the vulnerable, just 40 km wide Meghri district of the Republic of Armenia.

If the six districts are given back to the enemy and the frontline is moved back to the former administrative border of Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region, the Armenian side will lose the necessary depth for effective defense and will face bigger difficulties in defending Artsakh should a new war begin. The new frontline will run just 5 km away from the district centers of Mardakert, Askeran and Hadrut and 18 km away from Stepanakert. If the Armenian side gives back the Karvachar (formerly Kelbajar) district too, the Martakert district will get vulnerable to possible military attacks from three sides.

Even fortified to the maximum, the new defense line will not be a reliable guarantor of Artsakh's military security. As we know from military history, any well-fortified defense line (Mannerheim line, Siegfried line, Bar-Lev line) can be broken by the attacker, and only sufficient depth of defense can allow the defender to organize new resistance lines and by wearing the enemy out to stop his attack. For example, during the Yom Kippur War (1973), when the Egyptian troops overran the 157.5 km long and 15 km deep Bar-Lev line in Sinai in just six hours, it was exactly the depth of the line that allowed Israel to stop the Egyptian troops, to prevent them from going deep into its territory, to mobilize new forces and to turn around the situation.

Besides, if the border is moved, most of the settlements of Artsakh and the Sunik region of Armenia, first of all, Stepanakert, Kapan and Goris, will find themselves unprotected in the face of possible massive shelling by the enemy. If a new war starts, a sudden massive bombing of towns, district centers and villages by artillery and "Grads" will cause big casualties among civilians and heavy in destruction in Artsakh and Sunik. This may result in a mass exodus of people from the area.

3. Military communications

Efficient military communications, well-trained and equipped mobile troops, timely supply of arms, hardware, ammunition, fuel and other stuff and quick evacuation are really crucial in modern war. For the Armenian side, regular military communications would be really indispensable, should the enemy get big superiority during the first days of the war. Let's see in detail what military communications each side has:

Azerbaijan

The densely-populated areas of Azerbaijan are connected with the Artsakh front by two railroads: Baku-Yevlakh and Baku-Horadiz station and several motor roads: Baku-Shemakha-Yevlakh, Baku-Kurdamir-Yevlakh and Baku-Birmai-Bailakan (Zhdanovsk) as well as belt road Yevlakh-Barda-Agjabedy-Bailakan – quite a convenient road running along the frontline. All running via steppe, these roads will allow the enemy to quickly send mobilized troops to the Artsakh front and to get multiple superiority in personnel and hardware before the approach of the Armenian troops.

Artsakh

With the present frontline configuration, there are four motor roads connecting Armenia with Artsakh and the frontline: Vardenis-Mardakert, Goris-Stepanakert-Askeran-Agdam, Kapan-Zangelan-Jebrail and Meghri-Mijavan-Horadiz. If the war resumes, these roads will allow the Armenian sides to bring up quite big troops from Armenia to the Artsakh front in just a few days. So-called belt roads – communications running along the frontline – are crucial for the frontline resistive capacity. They allow to quickly redeploy troops to wherever there is a danger of breach. At present the Artsakh Defense Army has two belt roads: Mardakert-Agdam-Fizuli-Jebrail and the North-South highway project to connect Mardakert-Stepanakert-Red Bazar-Hadrut.

If the six liberated districts are surrendered, the Armenian armed forces will control only one belt road – Mardakert-Hadrut and only one road connecting mainland Armenia with Sunik and Artsakh – Yerevan-Goris-Stepanakert. This road runs through a highly mountainous area with many passes. If a new war starts, the Armenians will find it extremely difficult to keep the narrow Lachin corridor from the enemy's two-side strikes, but even if they retain Lachin, the enemy will use its artillery and aviation to make it as hard as possible for Armenia to quickly transfer big military forces and material and medical assistance to Artsakh. Meanwhile, the fate of Artsakh will depend exactly on how quickly Armenia will supply it with troops as the Defense Army of Artsakh may prove not strong enough to resist the onslaught of the greatly prevalent enemy.

Thus, you clearly see that the liberated territory is extremely important for keeping the military balance between the conflicting sides, while its surrender by the Armenian side will break it to Azerbaijan's advantage and will strongly aggravate the military-strategic situation of the Armenian states – something neither peace agreements nor international peacekeepers will compensate for. This is especially dangerous as Azerbaijan is heavily swelling its military potential, particularly, by redoubling its military budget in 2006 — from $300 mln to $600 mln – while Armenia will hardly be able to keep pace in the coming years for the following reasons:

1. The state budget of Armenia is 3.5 times smaller than the state budget of Azerbaijan ($1 bln against $3.5bln) and this gap will continue to grow as Azerbaijan will increase its oil exports. Meanwhile, Armenia's economic potential will not allow this country to allot as much money to the military as to keep the military parity with Azerbaijan.

2. Armenia can no longer hope for the big free military hardware supplies that it got from Russia in the mid 1990s and that helped it to keep military balance with Azerbaijan for the last decade. The key military partner of Armenia, Russia has begun to show more pragmatic policy in the last years, with no political or economic preferences. Hence, only by retaining the liberated territory, carrying out military reforms and improving the state administration system as a whole will the Armenian side be able to offset the growing military potential of the enemy and, thereby, to keep the Azeri side from temptation to resume military actions.

Given the continuing variance of the sides concerning the status of Artsakh, any change in the present configuration of the contact line will not stop the conflict but will simply create another, much more conflict-prone situation in the sphere of security. Should Azerbaijan, whose leadership keeps saying that it will never put up with the loss of Karabakh, agree to sign peace agreements, but will later prove not content with the return of just six districts and will make up its mind to get back the whole Artsakh by war, Armenia will get in a serious danger.

Turning to advantage the change in the military balance and the consequent vulnerability of Artsakh's whole defense system, Azerbaijan may use some convenient political moment to launch a blitzkrieg attack and to occupy Artsakh. In order to break the frontline, the Azeris will quickly concentrate strongly prevalent forces for one main blow – not a hard thing to do for them given the big quantitative and technical prevalence of the Azeri Army over the Defense Army of Artsakh and the facts that 70% of Azeri troops are deployed near the frontline and that Azerbaijan has better capacities for quickly deploying mobilized troops to the Artsakh front. The outcome of the war will greatly depend on its very first days, particularly, on the ability of the Defense Army of Artsakh to keep the frontline intact, which may prove quite a hard job.

Armenia will have very limited capacities to help Artsakh: it will not be able to use the vulnerable Lachin corridor for transferring big military contingents. If the frontline is broken and the Armenian troops fail to stop the enemy at Stepanakert, the Armenian side may lose not only Artsakh but also Sunik. If Azerbaijan occupies Artsakh, Turkey will certainly encourage it to try to make true the Pan-Turkic dream: to seize the Meghri district, thereby, linking Azerbaijan with Turkey and cutting Armenia from Iran. To this end, the enemy may strike from two sides – from Zangelan and Nakhichevan. After losing Artsakh, it will be extremely hard for the Armenian side to keep Meghri: the district is very narrow and lacks the necessary defense depth, while the motor roads connecting it with the rest of Armenia are quite vulnerable.

The liquidation of Serbian Krajina in Croatia in 1995 is one example of how real this scenario can be: Croatia broke earlier cease-fire agreements, mobilized its armed forces and suddenly attacked Serbian Krajina. In some few days they broke the frontline and occupied the region. As a result, Serbian Krajina stopped to exist and half million of Serbs were forced to leave their homeland and become refugees. This tragedy happened in the center of Europe in the presence of thousands-strong UN peacekeeping contingent and led to no sanctions against the aggressor side.

Conclusions:

1. One of the key factors keeping the military balance between Armenia and Artsakh, from the one side, and Azerbaijan, from the other, and compensating for Azerbaijan's personnel and hardware superiority and capacity to increase its military potential is the present optimal configuration of the Artsakh frontline.

2. The existing military balance rather than the cease-fire agreement of 1994 is keeping Azerbaijan back from resuming large-scale military actions.

3. By giving back any part of the liberated territory, the Armenian side will give Azerbaijan a military advantage and will reduce its own military security. This may inspire the enemy – should there be convenient moment — to solve the Karabakh problem by war. That's why it is absolutely inadmissible to surrender the liberated territory to the enemy.

4. Given the aggressive and genocide-prone Azeri-Turkish alliance, with its overwhelming military prevalence and open desire to destroy the Armenian statehood, the key security guarantee for Armenia and Artsakh must be the Armenian Army and the present territory of the Armenian states (42,000 sq. km.)

Source: http://www.regnum.ru/english/679147.html
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Postby Armenian on Wed Jun 06, 2007 3:35 am

Ararat wrote:As i always stated there is a huge problem with Artzakh issue. The problem is that the whole state mashine is propagating a solution where we must give lands. Personally i think that Kocharyan is not a giver. But imagine that some dark forces decide to eliminate the 2-3 persons who for sure will not give the lands then who will come next?


The state has to propose solutions. Officials have to conform to international law and diplomatic protocol. The Artsakh question is not a family dispute, it is not a street fight. The situation in the Caucasus is a very serious international matter. There is superpower politics at play in the region. Also, you are not taking into consideration the numerous international organizations - IMF, WTO, EU, NATO, UN, OSCE, etc, - that pressure our officials on a regular basis.

I also think that Kocharya and Sarkisian would not give up the territories in question. And you are right in stating that there are "dark forces" at play. These dark forces are allowed in to the country as international organizations promoting democracy, free media, womens rights, homosexual rights, etc. These dark forces are also made up of international government offices, embassies, money lending institutions, etc.

The aforementioned is why Moscow is taking the elections in Yerevan very seriously. They see the danger in Armenia. They don't want Armenia falling victim to a color revolution. They also know they - cannot - trust Armenians to do the right thing when it comes to geopolitics. It is quite obvious that we Armenians are not yet ready to see the world in a proper objective geopolitical perspective. Just look at our Hayrikians, Arzumanians, Petrosians, Baghdasaryans, Hovanesyans, etc. These types of individuals and the people they represent in Armenian are not a small minority, and that is why Moscow often times forcefully imposes their political will in Yerevan.

There are geopolitical lines being drawn on maps today. We clearly see this by observing various theaters of political turmoil and warfare. On one side of the line are the nations of USA, GB, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey, with various smaller nations playing lesser roles such as Georgia, Azerbaijan, Albania, Poland, etc. On the other side of the line are the nations of Russia, Iran, China and India, with various smaller nations playing lesser roles such as Armenia, Syria, Serbia, Kazakhstan, etc.

For various reasons, Armenia does - not - serve the interests the alliance represented by USA, Turkey, Israel, GB, Pakistan, etc. I don't see Armenia fitting their agenda for the foreseeable future. As a matter of fact, due to Armenian's historic dispute with Azeris and Turks, I see Armenia becoming a serious problem for these powers. Thus, due to various geopoltical factors we Armenians are destined to be on the side of Russia and Iran. There is no other options for us today. As of now, Moscow and Tehran need a viable Armenian Republic in the Caucasus. Our existence as a nation in the region serves their short/long term interests.

As a result, Moscow is the reason why I am not too concerned about 2-3 persons getting eliminated in Yerevan. Moscow, or Tehran or that matter, will not tolerate such an operation. If anything, Moscow would be the first to eliminate any Armenian official that attempts to move towards the west. Perhaps the assassinations in 1999 had something to do with this. Nevertheless, I believe that Tehran and Moscow will not allow Armenia to mutilate itself thereby serving Turkish, Azeri, American, Georgian interests. A weak Armenia is not in the strategic interests of Moscow and Tehran for the foreseeable future.

The Artur Bagdasaryan who is semitraitor already. Raffi Hovhanesyan who just entered the parliament because some big money in USA buyed his presence in parliament. The Bargavach with the leader that don't understand all aspect of international politics ? Who.. ? The hanrapetakan oligarchs who will be completly desoriented. Even dashnaks cannot take the situation in full control in such case...


How could anyone in Armenia vote for Baghdasaryan or Hovanesyan? How stupid must one be to cast a vote for those scoundrels. I also feel as if the Bargavach party is more or a club than a political organization. However, I have to say, do not underestimate the ARF. You do not know the organization as intimately as I do. The ARF is known for making great impact in times of chaos. In times of peace the ARF does come across as weak. Anyway, I would be willing to say that a large portion of our people today are traitors and/or ignorants. That is why I do not waste a single teardrop when I see authorities cracking down on the masses when the masses get out of hand.

It is completly absurd that such a fundamental question of armenians life depends from the will of 2-3 people. The whole state mashine should change his logic. the whole state mashine should have a such a ideology where just one word about giving lands will create a huge problems for a politician.


It's not much different eslewhere, believe me. The USA is controlled by several special interests/organizations, and so are a majority of the nations of the civilized world. The state machine, especially a small one like Armenia, has to answer to international organizations that give it financial/political support. If and when Armenia becomes a "rogue" state like Iran, Russia or North Korea, then you can say and do whatever you want about Artsakh. Until then, however, you have to play by the rules set by western powers. Incidentally, that is why the western world wants nations to join various international organizations - so that they can control the political/economic/social life of those nations.

Today the situation is completely upside down. Today if a politician says that he is against giving lands then his political carrier is finished in the middle term. More you cry about tolerance toward turks and azeris more you have chance to go up, ... it is crazy but it is a fact.


You can thank western NGOs for that and the prospects of joining the EU.

The members of the organisation who said this, today have problems with the judicial system. ... coincidence or ...


Such people should be hanged publicly.

This declaration is not against anyone precisely. This declaration is against those who speak about "giving our lands". Nobody forces them to speak about it. They just must control their tongues


Although I fully agree with the content of the declaration, such 'unfounded' declarations, however, may cause undue panic within some circles. As a result, such declarations may actually serve to undermine Armenia's internal stability. There is always a danger of some individual taking such news seriously and attempting to bring harm to our leadership. If that happens, what then? Who wins if the current administration is weakened? Who is waiting on the horizon to take over power?

As far as I know, these types of misinformation circulate around election times or other important political events. Several months ago it was the 9 Billion USD for Artsakh fairy-tale that came ahead of the elections in Armenia - and now its this fairy-tale ahead of elections in Artskah.

Foreign intelligence services know the nature of Armenian society well. They must know that Armenians love gossip and rumor. Thus, it is not a surprise that a significant portion of our politicking today is done via rumors and hearsay.[/quote]
Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

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Postby ARMENIA on Wed Jun 06, 2007 6:22 pm

SERGE SARGSYAN DID NOT USE RIGHT WORDING

Lragir.am
06-06-2007 13:52:37

On June 5 NKR President Arkady Ghukasyan commented on Prime Minister
Serge Sargsyan's statement he had made when he was minister of
defense. Of course, it was not his initiative but when the reporters
reminded him his rather tough statement a few months ago that the
territories will not be returned. The reporters asked if there is
disagreement between the NKR president and the Armenian prime minister
regarding the problem.

"I don't think Serge Sargsyan is inclined to return the territories.

Perhaps it was not a diplomatic pronouncement, I repeat the talks
are on the status first of all. If we reach agreement on the status
of Karabakh and get what we want, we cannot avoid discussing the
territories. We must negotiate.


It already depends on the talks where we will reach. It was about
this. That it is impossible, unfortunately, to get what you dream of
in the talks," Arkady Ghukasyan says.
"Keep us highlanders and we will keep you"
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Postby ARMENIA on Wed Jun 06, 2007 6:57 pm

KARABAKH DOES NOT ALWAYS SUCCEED CONVEYING ITS STANCE

Lragir.am
05-06-2007 19:30:16

NKR President Arkady Ghukasyan said in a news conference on June 5
after he met with the OSCE Chairman-in-Office Miguel Angel Moratinos
at the representation of NKR to Armenia he cannot imagine optimism
unless there is agreement on the status. "The first issue is the
status of Nagorno-Karabakh. It is pointless to discuss other issues
unless there is agreement on this issue. This is our approach,"
says Arkady Ghukasyan.

In answer to the question why the OSCE Chairmen-in-Office, who used
to visit Stepanakert now meets with the NKR leadership in Yerevan,
Arkady Ghukasyan said it is the wish of the guests, and either they
have to accept it or refuse to meet in Yerevan. They accept.

"If I am not mistaken, the OSCE CiO has visited Karabakh only once.

Afterwards, because of shortage of time they say, they ask to meet in
Yerevan," Arkady Ghukasyan says. He does not think it matters much
where they meet, it is important what they talk. Besides, Arkady
Ghukasyan does not think it is tragedy that Karabakh is not taking
part in the talks.

"I cannot remember a single meeting where this issue was not discussed.

Because I think and not only me, I think all of you agree that the
Armenia-Azerbaijan format is a destructive format. And it is not
a logical format. The fate of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh is
concerned, and it is not clear why Nagorno-Karabakh is not involved
in the talks directly," says the NKR president. According to him,
if Armenia and Azerbaijan reach a resolution which is acceptable
for Karabakh, they have no problem. "If you remember I told once let
Spain and Portugal negotiate instead of Armenia and Azerbaijan. If the
independence of Nagorno-Karabakh is recognized and the other issues
are resolved the way we want, we have no problem. But unfortunately
I think this format will not resolve the issue. I am fully convinced
that everyone will acknowledge that this format is not realistic,
Karabakh will take part in the talks by all means. Karabakh is not
involved, therefore no issue is resolved," Arkady Ghukasyan says.

"As to our standpoint, you all know it. Nagorno-Karabakh will
never agree to be part of Azerbaijan. Nagorno-Karabakh will never
give away its independence.The other issues can be discussed,
and we are ready to discuss. This is our principle. If it satisfies
Azerbaijan, I am happy, if not, it is Azerbaijan's problem," Arkady
Ghukasyan says. According to him, not resolving any issue is also a
resolution.
"Resolve the issue without resolving any issue, if I may
put it so. This is also an approach, and there are opinions, and I
think the situation must develop so. Our approach is it is impossible
to get 100 percent of what you desire through the talks. It concerns
everyone, Armenia, Karabakh and Azerbaijan. On the other hand, there is
no alternative to the talks. We do not make the agenda of the talks. It
is clear that the mediator must offer a proposal which Armenia and
Azerbaijan will agree to discuss. I do not think I can say more than
the people who take part in these consultations more often. I mean
the Armenian foreign minister first of all. But I repeat we cannot
reject the talks. I mean Armenia and Karabakh. We must be ready for
the talks and try to spell out our stance and defend our stance,"
Arkady Ghukasyan says, repeating that it is pointless to try to go
forward without resolving the issue of the status. He considers it
pointless to discuss the referendum on status because there is no
agreement on these issues.

"In any case, I cannot imagine anyone make a decision behind the back
of people or sign a document which is not in the interests of people. I
am sure there will be nothing of the kind. The negotiations should
be confidential, it is acceptable but if the sides reach agreement,
it must be presented to the publics, the political parties of both
Karabakh and Armenia, and we will make a decision together. We have
a constitution, I mean NKR, and nobody can impose a decision on us
which is not in the interests of our people," says the NKR president.


He says Karabakh does not often succeed conveying its stance and insist
on it in the Armenia-Azerbaijan talks. "There is disagreement, but this
disagreement is not dramatic," Arkady Ghukasyan says in answer to the
question about the possible deviation of the approaches of Armenia and
Karabakh. Arkady Ghukasyan says he does not want to accuse anyone of
conducting the negotiations badly and representing the interests of
Karabakh badly. He waits and advises to wait until the negotiations
end, because the talks are not a unilateral process. "Either you have
to accept the style of negotiation, the logic of negotiation or you
cannot think that you can always insist on what you want because you
do not make the agenda," says the NKR president.
"Keep us highlanders and we will keep you"
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Postby Lernakan on Wed Jun 06, 2007 8:13 pm

Image

THERE ARE NO OCCUPIED TERRITORIES IN NAGORNO KARABAKH AND AROUND IT

PanARMENIAN.Net
05.06.2007 18:44 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The meeting between Armenian and Azeri presidents in
St. Petersburg on June 9 will not become fateful, NKR President Arkadi
Ghukassian stated in Yerevan to a press conference after having met
with OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel
Moratinos. He said, it will become one of those meetings, during which
the sides will not come to an agreement. "If President of Azerbaijan
Ilham Aliev continues to insist on his variant of settlement, the
conflict will not be solved," Ghukassian underlined.

At the same time the NKR President stressed that the issue of
territories adjacent to NKR is out of the question. "We do not have
occupied territories and we do not have Armenian army here. The
Defense Army of NKR liberated the security zone around NKR the same
army defends those territories. But for some reasons nobody talks
about those 15 percent of Karabakh territories, which up till now are
under Azeri occupation: part of Martouni, Mardakert and the Shahumyan
region. It is necessary to speak on equal terms about this issue,"
Ghukassian said.
www.ArmenianHighland.com

Yes Tseghakron Em - Yev aha K'yerdnum Vahagni Achi Vrah Yerbek Chmexanchel Ukhtis Dem - Aprel, Gorcel u Mernel Vorpes Tsexamard.
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Postby Ararat on Sun Jun 10, 2007 6:56 pm

Act of Protest Supporting Zhirayr Sefilian and Liberated Territories

"Mitq" Analytical Center, "Alliance" public-political initiative, members of Internet sites and forums, "Liberated Territories’ Protection" public initiative and some other organizations carried held an action of protest from Teryan Street to the buildings of RA Foreign Ministry and RA Government. The members of intelligentsia, freedom fighters, participants of the organizations were protesting against the recent statements made by the OSCE Minsk group Co-Chairs, according to whom the seven liberated regions should be returned to Azerbaijan. The participants of the rally were greatly irritated by the fact that our authorities do not respond the abovementioned statements. They believe that this factor may cause a decision that the people will not accept.

The rally members marched to the OSCE Office in Yerevan and handed a memorandum for the OSCE Minsk Group. "The document in the agenda of the negotiations, as far as we can judge from the statements of the co-chairs, isn’t in the interests and the rights of the Armenian people, the actual reality. In fact the negotiations are being held in quite a wrong path. And the results of such negotiations can never become a reality and can never be approved by the Armenian people. The liberated territories are a part of our motherland," Armen Aghayan, political secretary of "Liberated Territories’ Protection" initiative, said.

"The society is unaware of what’s happening, everyone knows that something is going to happen, but they know not what is to come. The strangers tell us what is going to happen, while our own authorities do not respond their statements. If they are not going to respond, we are already concerned," Aghavni Sahakian, freedom fighter, member of ""Liberated Territories’ Protection" initiative, said. She added that if they try to return the liberated territories, everybody will be ready to fight. Mrs. Sahakian said that "Dashnaktsutiun" party should have been among the leaders of this rally, as a party that constantly dwells on the protection of the liberated territories. She pointed out with regret that the party remains indifferent even after the arrest of Sefilian.

"If the hero of the Artsakh liberation war, the knight of battle cross is arrested, it means that something is wrong in our country, at least from my viewpoint. I joined this rally to express this position. We have overcome all these 14-15 hard years, all these injustices, all this robbery, as the society was hoping that in this very issue the interests of the state and the people would match. Though we have a society of zombies, but the healthy seed remains and we can’t miss this opportunity. If the power belongs to the people, we should take advantage of our constitutional right," film director Tigran Khzmalian said.

Writer Hrachia Matevosian added that the fact that hero Zhirayr Sefilian, commander of the Shoushi battalion, is arrested is a big crime. He said that the future in Armenia belongs to those who are like Zhirayr.

Toros Sefilian, brother of Zhirayr Sefilian, who is on visit in Armenia for a fortnight, said in the interview that Zhirayr Sefilian is feeling good, while his case is sent to RA Prosecutor’s Office. Toros Sefilian stated that they will continue their deed notwithstanding the fact whether their brother is arrested or not.

The rally members also handed memorandum to RA Foreign Ministry and to RA Government. They demand that Zhirayr Sefilain and Vardan Malkhasian are released and the criminal suit instituted against them isn’t sent to the court in the memorandum addressed to RA Prime Minister Serge Sargsian. They also demand that Sefilian isn’t deported from Armenia and is granted Armenian citizenship.

By Gohar Gevorgian
http://www.azg.am/?lang=EN&num=2007060904
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Postby Lernakan on Tue Jun 12, 2007 8:06 pm

Yerevan must think about changing format of talks on Karabakh
12.06.2007 16:17 GMT+04:00


Image

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ “There will be no serious moves in the issue of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement: the results of the meeting between Armenian and Azeri Presidents, as well as slump of optimism with the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs are good reasons for that,” Director of “Hay Dat” office and head of ARF “Dashnaktsutyun’s” political issues department Giro Manoyan stated to a press conference in Yerevan June 12. He said, the reason of the standstill is the unavoidable change of power in the results of presidential elections in Nagorno Karabakh, USA, Armenia and Azerbaijan. “At the talks Azerbaijan has a tendency to refuse from previously reached agreements, and the presidential elections in the United States will result in fall of interest by that country in the settlement of the conflict,” Manoyan underlined, adding that the U.S. will be busy with his domestic issues and will not be able to influence on Azerbaijan. The ARFD member noted that Armenia must use this period for strengthening its positions. According to G. Manoyan particularly Armenia must put the issue of settling territories on the state level, carry out a purposeful foreign policy.

“Yerevan must think about changing the format of talks on Karabakh, namely, to include Nagorno Karabakh in the process of conflict settlement. It doesn’t worth to begin negations from the very beginning after presidential elections in Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is necessary to make it clear for Baku that in this case Stepanakert will also be included in the process of talks,” Giro Manoyan underscored, adding that the new President of Nagorno Karabakh can make such a statement himself. Presidential elections in Nagorno Karabakh are scheduled for July 19, 2007, IA Regnum reports.

http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=22637
www.ArmenianHighland.com

Yes Tseghakron Em - Yev aha K'yerdnum Vahagni Achi Vrah Yerbek Chmexanchel Ukhtis Dem - Aprel, Gorcel u Mernel Vorpes Tsexamard.
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Postby ARMENIA on Sat Jun 16, 2007 8:56 pm

AZERBAIJAN SHOULD UNDERSTAND THAT THERE IS NO RETURN TO THOSE TIMES

Image
Vardan Barseghian - Representative of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic to the U.S.


KarabakhOpen
15-06-2007 11:35:22

Today, the Washington Diplomat, a monthly newspaper which is
distributed to all Washington-based foreign embassies, the World Bank
and IMF Group, the U.S. State Department, Capitol Hill, the White
House and many other points of influence, published NKR Representative
Vardan Barseghian's letter sent in response to an article that touched
upon the Nagorno Karabakh issue.

Representative Barseghian's letter is included below.

You can also view it at

* * * June 8, 2007

Dear Editor,

Azerbaijan should have a 'prosperous and healthy future' as Yashar
Aliyev says (Azerbaijan Basks in Energy Riches... by Michael Coleman,
June 2007), but it should also come to terms with what happened in
Nagorno Karabakh in early 1990s. We just cannot ignore the reality:
The force that kept Karabakh inside Azerbaijan for 70 Soviet years
is long gone.

For Nagorno Karabakh to go back being part of Azerbaijan, somebody
needs to bring back Joseph Stalin, who gave Karabakh to Azerbaijan in
1921 against our will, and the Soviet Union, which forcefully kept
Karabakh inside Azerbaijan despite numerous popular appeals to the
contrary. Azerbaijan should understand that there is no return to
those times, even more so after its brutal military campaign against
Nagorno Karabakh in 1991-1994.

Instead, now the time is for Azerbaijan to tone down its war rhetoric
and misleading propaganda for domestic and foreign audiences (some of
which appeared in Coleman's article), embark on a series of confidence
building measures (which Karabakh has been proposing for a decade)
and resume a direct dialogue with Nagorno Karabakh to deal with
the cause of this conflict (Karabakh's political status) and then
with consequences on both sides (controlled territories, refugees,
communications, etc.).

The day that happens will mark the beginning of a new and more
promising era for everybody in the South Caucasus.

Sincerely,

Vardan Barseghian Representative of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic to
the U.S.
"Keep us highlanders and we will keep you"
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Postby Lernakan on Sat Jun 16, 2007 10:32 pm

ILHAM ALIYEV: “OUR POLICY MUST BE AGGRESSIVE, IT MUST ATTACK”

Image


Monday Azeri President Ilham Aliyev addressed the audience in the course of the Parliament’s fall session.
“We should switch to the information and economic attack and strengthen our external potential”, stated I. Aliyev speaking about the ways of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict’s settlement, Day.az reports.
Aliyev reminded that being elected a President he had set increase of the military expenditure a principal goal. “We should put pressure on Armenia, otherwise it will hardy liberate our territories. We should also be ready for a war”, the President underscored. At the same time Aliyev noted using both political and economic factors Azerbaijan would be able to turn the heat on Armenia. “Yet, after Azerbaijan becomes a hundred times stronger than Armenia, the war may become unnecessary”, he believes.
According to the state’s Head, some opponents’ reproaches that the conflict has not been settled are groundless. “It happens because Azerbaijan cannot cope with unfavorable proposals. As a President I will not go to the proposals that do not meet the Azerbaijan’s interests. It is an issue number one, all our efforts should be directed to this”, the President stated.
Aliyev informed that the OSCE Minsk group Co-Chairs were arriving in the region current week.
“We do not deny the format, however, we believe other international organizations can also contribute to the peacemaking process”, he concluded.
Day.az, October 2, 2006
.
DE FACTO INFORMATION-ANALYTICS AGENCY’S COMMENT

DE FACTO Information-Analytics Agency has repeatedly noted that if Azerbaijan resumed hostilities it would inevitably result in this state’s destruction. The Armenian armed subdivisions can terminate the Azerbaijani Republic’s short history. Perhaps, Azerbaijan must be ready for a war, as the first in the line of succession President believes. However, the Azerbaijan’s problem is that the Armenian subdivisions are ‘’ready” for such a course of events. And first of all it concerns the moral spirit’s level, though, as for armaments, we do not lag behind the Azeri army that spends hundreds of millions for its needs.
Generally speaking, a war, blasphemously as it may sound, is favorable for Armenians, who will face a country stuck in corruption and mutual accusations, where a part (the Turks) tries to assimilate all the national minorities. Nevertheless, even taking into consideration the situation, Armenia is peaceable as always, offering constructive approaches to the conflict’s settlement every time, unlike its reflexive neighbor that doubts if to begin a war with Armenia or not, yet, under condition that “Azerbaijan is a hundred times stronger than Armenia”.
However, Aliyev is not Hamlet, and Azerbaijan will never be “a hundred times” stronger than Armenia. Moreover, Azerbaijan will never be stronger than the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, as a party struggling for its Motherland always relies on the native land’s vivifying saps.
Maybe that is a reason that Azerbaijan denies negotiations with Nagorno-Karabakh, being aware that it has lost confrontation to it, and not Armenia. However, going on involving Armenia in the negotiation process, Azerbaijan is trying to lead the problem’s solution to the other sphere, where, as practice shows, nothing can be settled. Sure, Azerbaijan may not agree with the mediators’ proposals, no matter how weighted they are.
However, the fact can just strengthen the international image and authority of the NKR, which has been proving to the world its ability to protect its statehood, and not only at the battlefields, for fifteen years.
So, I. Aliyev will have to sit at the negotiating table with the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic President, who was been elected by the whole nation. The realities’ recognition is inevitable, even for the politicians staking on “the information and economic attack”.
www.ArmenianHighland.com

Yes Tseghakron Em - Yev aha K'yerdnum Vahagni Achi Vrah Yerbek Chmexanchel Ukhtis Dem - Aprel, Gorcel u Mernel Vorpes Tsexamard.
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