Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

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Postby Lernakan on Sat Jun 23, 2007 8:58 pm

Report: IAF preparing for Iran strike

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The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has been training on long-range flights, including refueling in mid-flight, in preparation for potential strikes against Iranian nuclear targets.

The training program has been taking place for some time but has only been released for publication Friday, the Ma'ariv daily reported.

Intelligence assessments received by the defense establishment concur that once Iran passes the point of no return in its nuclear efforts, the entire Middle East will enter a frantic nuclear armament race. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are expected to take the lead should such a scenario become reality.

At the end of 2007 the US and Israel are expected to hold a joint assessment to ascertain the influence of economic sanctions against Iran.

A new package of upgraded sanctions prepared jointly by Israel and the US, includes exerting pressure on European governments to cancel US $22 billion in loan guarantees given annually to European companies trading with Iran.

The new package also includes sanctions against banks working with Iran, non-renewal of oil infrastructure in Iran and a long series of economic actions that are meant to seriously hurt the Iranian economy.

Following the end-of-year assessment, Washington will decide how to move forward in the struggle against Iran's nuclear race.

Members of the international community - the US and Israel leading - are convinced that Iran's race to enrich uranium is aimed at producing nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic, on its side, insists it is looking for energy sources that would be an alternative to fossil fuels.

Iran has so far remained defiant in face of the demands voiced by the international community that it make its nuclear program transparent to UN-mandated monitoring.
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Postby Armenian on Sat Jun 23, 2007 10:21 pm

Lernakan wrote:Report: IAF preparing for Iran strike


There has been allot of talk about Israelis running out of patience waiting for the Americans to attack Iran. Isn't it funny though, that they are "expecting" Americans to do the dirty work for them, as always. Anyway, Americans are realizing more-and-more that attacking Iran will have dire consequences for them. So, it may come down to the Israelis doing their own dirty work. The bottom line is, one way or another they have to attack Iran. An independent nuclear armed Iran is not acceptable to the short and long term geopolitical agendas of Washington DC, Riyadh and Tel Aviv.
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Postby Lernakan on Sat Jun 23, 2007 10:27 pm

Armenian wrote:
Lernakan wrote:Report: IAF preparing for Iran strike


There has been allot of talk about Israelis running out of patience waiting for the Americans to attack Iran. Isn't it funny though, that they are "expecting" Americans to do the dirty work for them, as always. Anyway, Americans are realizing more-and-more that attacking Iran will have dire consequences for them. So, it may come down to the Israelis doing their own dirty work. The bottom line is, one way or another they have to attack Iran. An independent nuclear armed Iran is not acceptable to the short and long term geopolitical agendas of Washington DC, Riyadh and Tel Aviv.


Enker Armenian do you think that there will be any retaliation by Iran when this happens?
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Postby Armenian on Sat Jun 23, 2007 11:45 pm

Lernakan wrote:Enker Armenian do you think that there will be any retaliation by Iran when this happens?


It depends on the kind of attack Tehran will face. I think that the attack will be an aerial assault - long range missiles and combat aircrafts.

However, Iran's greatest strength is its influence in Iraq, where it has popularity amongst the Shiite majority. When push comes to shove, Iran can take a heavy toll on American troops in Iraq and even Afghanistan. Thus, far the Shiites in Iraq have been very passive, even in the face of severe atrocities against them. I believe their general calmness is for a reason, they are waiting for the right time. And that right time may come if Americans attempt to invade Iran.

However, a land invasion of Iran is more-or-less out of the question. As stupid as the Bush administration has been they are not that stupid. A land invasion of Iran will mean the end of USA as a viable force in the region, and will most probably lead to a Third World War. Iran is a nation that will not fall. Militarily, Iran has the capabilities to sink American warships and destroy oil refinery stations throughout the Persian Gulf. Iran can also block the Strait of Hormuz from trade, that which the global economy is dependent on.

Believe it or not, Iran today controls the game. Tehran has the advantages in political, economic and strategic aspects of the current situation. However, despite the above mentioned factors, they 'have' to attack Iran. At the very least, they have to set back Tehran's nuclear agenda.
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Postby Armanen on Sun Jun 24, 2007 1:39 am

I think that the attack will be an aerial assault - long range missiles and combat aircrafts.


I see an attack similar to the nato bombings of Serbia in '99. Yet, Iran is in a much stronger position to hit back than the Serbs were eight years ago.
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Postby Armenian on Sun Jun 24, 2007 3:01 am

Armanen wrote:I see an attack similar to the nato bombings of Serbia in '99. Yet, Iran is in a much stronger position to hit back than the Serbs were eight years ago.


The Serbian situation, as well as that of Iraq, was completely different than that of the current one involving Iran. More-or-less, Serbia was abandoned by Russia at the time, and Milosevic essentially surrendered to NATO in order to save his family and his wealth from total destruction. I had posted the following comments earlier, I think its worth a second look:

Armenian wrote:This thread is about Iran but I just want to say a few things first about the NATO aggression against Serbia:

I closely monitored the NATO air campaign against Serbia during the spring of 1999. Militarily speaking, it was a complete failure for NATO. I vividly recall that the month long massive air campaign only managed to knock out about a dozen or so main battle tanks of the Serbian army in Kosovo. NATO did, however, do a lot more damage to Serbian civic structures, that is, hospitals, bridges, power plants, etc. In the end, it was Milosevic and company that wanted to protect their lives, their families and their wealth by agreeing to NATO demands. Serbia as a nation, as a military force, was 'not' defeated - Milosevic's political administration was defeated.

Had NATO attempted to physically invade Serbia they would have been utterly decimated to the very last man. Serbians are quite warlike, they had several years of experience in fighting, they had large stockpiles of ammunition and weapons, and the Serbian geography is very rugged and forested which serves the defender. A NATO invasion of Serbia would have been a complete disaster for NATO. I know NATO knew this well and that is why they decided to stay the course with the air campaign and economic pressure placed upon Serbia.

Today, it's a complete different situation with Iran:

Zionist/Globalist forces of America want to destroy Iran but they know very well that they can't do so directly. Unlike Serbia in 1999 and Iraq in 2003, Iran controls the current geopolitical situation militarily, economically and politically. Iran has complete control over the Shiite government in Iraq. Iran has close relations with Tadjiks and other ethnic groups in Afghanistan. And Iran has close military and economic connections with
Russia and China.

Considering the bloody situation in Iraq, American forces know they can't physically invade Iran. Thus, they are trying to figure out how to destroy the regime in Tehran from the outside - by air strikes, by Kurdish/Azeri insurgents and/or by an internal revolution. Nonetheless, it's difficult to scare Iranians with military action because Iranians, unlike Europeans, can tolerate alot of punishment and loss of life, and unlike Arabs - "Aryan" Iranians are good diplomats and fighters.

Note: The Iraqi military in Kuwait was in essence defeated in 1991 even before the war had begun. Iraq's military hardware and technology was ten-to-twenty years behind that of the coalition force's at the time. All of Iraq's neighbors, without exception, in addition to all major global powers, opposed Iraq's actions in Kuwait. As a result, Iraq was effectively isolated. Thus, Iraq was defeated in Kuwait due to various diplomatic formulations, its open desert terrain and its old military hardware. However, when the playing field is more-or-less level, as in Baghdad today, man-to-man, American forces are no match for the 'freedom fighters' in the region.

Obviously, Iran today is nothing like Iraq in terms of economic, military and diplomatic capability. Full scale war with Iran will only spell disaster for the entire region. As a result, I see a serious a danger in the fact that in the eyes of Israeli politicians and most of the petty whores in Washington DC, Iran 'must' be stopped from going nuclear at all costs. Iran is perhaps one of the last fronts in so-called "war on terror," a war that in reality is a war to destroy the last opposition to Tel Aviv and Washington DC and implement Zionist and Globalist authority within the most vital geo-strategic region on earth.

However, since Iran is proving to be powerful diplomatically, economically, politically and militarily, Tel Aviv and Washington DC are most probably being forced to seriously consider the "tactical nuclear trike" option. Not to long ago there was much talk about using tactical nuclear weapons in the so-called "war on Terror." In the end, there may be a major strike upon American, Israeli or European interests, perhaps done by western intelligence services. And, as a result, the tactical nuclear strike option will be implemented against Iran.

I hope I'm wrong but my fear is that Iran's military power and political resilience will force the nuclear hand of Washington DC and/or Tel Aviv.

Some further notes on Iran:

Iran's military today is quite advanced and capable. They have built their armed forces from scratch, and for the past ten-fifteen years they have invested billions of their petro-dollars on their military technology. Unlike Iraq in 1983, Iran has their nuclear sites, along with their sensitive military command and control locations, spread out underground within hundreds of undisclosed sites.

Unlike Iraq and Serbia, Iran deploys very sophisticated missile systems. Unlike Iraq and Serbia, Iran is very large. Also, unlike Iraq and Serbia, Iran has been preparing for a major war for years. What's more, Iran can't be forced to subjugation by an economic blockade, for Iran's economy can thrive independently because it has large amounts of petrol/gas, direct access to the open ocean and friendly trading partners worldwide.

American naval and air forces in the region are very vulnerable to long range guided missile strikes from Iran. Iran has thousands of missiles capable of hitting the sensitive sites of the American military in the region. Iran covers the entire eastern flank of the Persian Gulf with its highly armed mountainous land mass.

The Persian Gulf is essentially a pond, and American warships - sitting ducks. Strategically, Iran also has a major trump card, it can start a Shiite rebellion in Iraq if and when it is threatened. And Iran has been organizing and arming the majority Shiite population of Iraq for that day. Iran and Syria are strategic partners. Iran also controls Hizballah in Lebanon and can attempt to open a second front there if need be. Currently, Iran has all the advantages - diplomatic, military, economic and strategic, especially after the highly successful Hizbollah defense action in Lebanon.

Thus, any direct attack on Iran won't be pretty. And in my opinion, if it does happens the "shock and awe" this time around will be from the other side, Tehran that is. Nevertheless, Iran's well being is vital for Russia, China, Armenia and for the western world in general. Without Iran and Syria to a lesser extent, the entire region in question with be taken over by Zionists, Globalists, American imperialists, Sunni fundamentalists, and pan-Turkists.

Iran and Armenia have always had cordial relations. Last time Armenia and Iran had political problems was back in 451 AD. Iranians, generally speaking, have great respect towards Christian Armenians and other western peoples. And Iranians have been fighting Turkish expansion for centuries. Lets not forget, when Armenians were fighting the Azeri Turks in the early 90's, Iran and Russia were the only nations that helped us - militarily and economically. The western world and Israel not only abandoned us, they were openly helping Azeri Turks against us.

Today, Armeno-Iranian relations continue to grow. In the face of growing Turco-American and Zionist power in the region, a front made up of Russia, Armenia and Iran is fast developing. Without this Russo-Armeno-Iranian front, the entire region in question would effectively be in the hands of Zionists, American Imperialists and Turkic peoples.
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Postby Armenian on Sun Jun 24, 2007 5:50 am

Russia sees no missile threat from Iran

Russia sees no threat from Iran's ballistic missiles and does not understand why the United States needs to speak of such a menace to justify the presence of a US missile defence system in Europe, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday. "We do not see any kind of threat from Iran," Lavrov told a news conference after a meeting in Tehran of foreign ministers from Caspian Sea states.

"Thus, we do not understand why in order to justify the installation of a US anti-ballistic missile system in Europe you have to bring up the pretext of a genuine Iranian threat," he added. The United States plans to locate a powerful missile-tracking radar in the Czech Republic as well interceptor missiles in Poland to combat what it says are threats to global security. Russia vehemently opposes either location for the planned US system.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070620/wl ... 0620160201
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Postby artsakh on Sun Jun 24, 2007 7:22 pm

as long as Putin is President, no attack will take place against Iran. Armenian, you are mistaken: israel will not make any move by itself, especially after the humiliation they faced at the hands of hezbolla. Iran might well already posses the nuclear bomb. Iran is playing the jews, and the US like toys in its hands, and the US is in too deep a shitttt to do anything about it.
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Postby arziv on Mon Jun 25, 2007 12:00 pm

I don't countenance the Israelis attacking anyone one their own, save for Lebanon, Palestinians, and other defence incapable entities. The USA is the israeli rottweiler in the region, to do the barking and carrying out the biting.
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Postby Armanen on Tue Jun 26, 2007 1:00 am

completely different than that of the current one involving Iran.


It was similar in that bs charges were brought against the Serbs, i.e. ethnic cleansing, "genocide", etc., what is washington doing now? Iran is making nukes, will attack European allies, etc. What was said about iraq before the invasion of march 2003, wmd, saddam was linked with osama, etc. Spread bs is the tactic washington seems to favor before any attacks, land or air.
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Postby arziv on Tue Jun 26, 2007 11:02 am

The propaganda campaign is on going and relentless. Any military action is preceded by a crescendo in the propaganda bombardement.

Since the organs of propaganda and disinformation are in the hands of the established regime, an alternate view can not and will never see the light of day in the mainstream audio-press. After the fiascos of Iraq, the peoples propaganda machinery of the USA is spewing mendacious lies about how democracy is being exported and how the iraquis have welcomed it. The more the situation worsens the more propaganda gets cranked up. The same machinery will spread and diseminate misfortunes, defeats and losses as successful maneuvers, tactical victories and strategic withdrawals in the face on incoming victories.
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Postby arziv on Tue Jun 26, 2007 11:02 am

The propaganda campaign is on going and relentless. Any military action is preceded by a crescendo in the propaganda bombardement.

Since the organs of propaganda and disinformation are in the hands of the established regime, an alternate view can not and will never see the light of day in the mainstream audio-press. After the fiascos of Iraq, the peoples propaganda machinery of the USA is spewing mendacious lies about how democracy is being exported and how the iraquis have welcomed it. The more the situation worsens the more propaganda gets cranked up. The same machinery will spread and diseminate misfortunes, defeats and losses as successful maneuvers, tactical victories and strategic withdrawals in the face on incoming victories.
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Postby Armenian on Mon Jul 02, 2007 4:20 am

Iran to Join Latin American Trade Deal

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Iran plans to join a Latin American initiative designed to counter U.S.-led efforts for free trade in the region, the Web site of the Iranian president's office reported Sunday as Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez visited the country. The report said Chavez welcomed Iran's observer membership in the Cuban-Venezuelan alternative to the Free Trade Area of the Americas. It did not specify exactly what observer membership would entail, but illustrated the growing relationship between Venezuela and Iran, whose leaders have strongly condemned U.S. policies.

"The pillars of world arrogance have been shaky. Victory will be realized by resistance and steadiness," Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said while meeting with Chavez, according to the Web site. Chavez and Cuban President Fidel Castro, another U.S. enemy, signed the deal _ known by its Spanish acronym ALBA _ in 2005 to counter Washington's efforts to expand free trade with Latin American countries. It contains much leftist rhetoric and few specifics, but was followed by closer economic ties between the two leaders. Although the FTAA stalled in 2005, Washington since has signed nine free trade agreements with Latin American countries.

"Cooperation between independent countries such as Iran and Venezuela will have an effective role in defeating imperialism," the Web site quoted Chavez as saying. Ties between Iran and Venezuela have been growing stronger. Chavez has defended Iran's disputed nuclear program, dismissing U.S. concerns that Tehran is secretly trying to develop atomic weapons. "Political interests and close regional and international stances are among the important factors that help to continue this close cooperation," Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini told reporters Sunday during his weekly press conference. Chavez arrived in Iran on Saturday for a two-day visit, as part of a three-nation tour after stops in Russia and Belarus. His visit is the third to Iran in the past two years.

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/01/AR2007070101004.html
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Postby Armenian on Wed Jul 04, 2007 2:17 am

Iran, Venezuela form "axis of unity" against U.S.

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The presidents of Iran and Venezuela launched construction of a joint petrochemical plant on Monday, strengthening an "axis of unity" between two oil-rich nations staunchly opposed to the United States. Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who both often rail against Washington, also signed a series of other deals to expand economic cooperation, ranging from setting up a dairy factory in Venezuela to forming an oil company.

"The two countries will unite to defeat the imperialism of North America," a beaming Chavez told a news conference during an official visit to the Islamic Republic, which the United States has labeled part of an "axis of evil".

"When I come to Iran Washington gets upset," he said. The two presidents — whose countries are members of OPEC — earlier attended the ceremony to start building a methanol facility with an annual capacity of 1.65 million tons on the Islamic Republic's Gulf coast.

"Iran and Venezuela — the axis of unity," read one of many official posters at the site near the port town of Assalouyeh, showing the two leaders hugging each other and shaking hands. Ahmadinejad — who came to power two years ago pledging to revive the values of the 1979 Islamic revolution — hailed the event as a step towards boosting "brotherly" ties of the two "revolutionary" nations. Iran is embroiled in a worsening nuclear standoff with Western powers. Chavez, who last week pushed two U.S. oil giants out of his country as part of his self-styled socialist revolution, said: "This is the unity of the Persian Gulf and the Caribbean Sea."

Iranian officials said a second methanol plant would be set up in Venezuela. Each would cost about $650 million to $700 million and take four years to complete. Methanol is an alcohol which can be used as a solvent or an element in fuel. The plants would help Iran access the Latin American market, while Venezuela would get closer to buyers in India and Pakistan. Chavez, who wants to forge an alliance of leftist states to counter U.S. policies, arrived in Tehran on Saturday after visiting Russia and Belarus. In comments certain to please his hosts, who have often called on the United States to leave Iraq, Chavez branded those invading Iran's neighbor as "barbarians", drawing parallels with the European colonization of Latin America centuries ago.

"Those who try to convince the world that in Iran there are a bunch of barbarians are barbarians themselves."

The hard-line Kayhan Daily, Iran's leading Persian newspaper, said the two countries were riding on a "global anti-imperialism wave." But both also face economic challenges. Iran sits atop the world's second-largest oil and gas reserves, but U.S.-led efforts to isolate it over its nuclear ambitions are hurting investment in the sector, analysts say. The Islamic state rejects accusations it is seeking to build atom bombs, saying it only aims to generate electricity. Chavez last week forced U.S. oil majors from Venezuela, seizing oilfields from ExxonMobil (XOM)and ConocoPhillips (COP). But economists caution his social spending, mainly paid for by state oil company PDVSA, could run into trouble as Venezuela battles to maintain oil output after the exit of the majors. The opposition complain his anti-Americanism scares off investors.

Source: http://www.usatoday.com/money/world/2007-07-02-iranvenezuela-unity_N.htm

Venezuela to sell gasoline to Iran

Venezuela has agreed to sell gasoline to Iran, the South American county‘s energy minister said in comments published Tuesday, a week after the Islamic country imposed a fuel rationing program that has sparked violence. During a visit to Iran this week, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez called the two nations "strategic partners." Ramirez accompanied Chavez on the visit. The government says the fuel rationing will free up funding for development projects and make the country "invincible."

The rationing is part of a government attempt to reduce about $10 billion it spends each year to import fuel that is then sold to Iranian drivers at far less than its cost, to keep prices low. Iranians are accustomed to gasoline at rock bottom prices. After a 25 percent hike in prices was imposed May 21, gas sells at the equivalent of 38 cents a gallon.

Source: http://www.newsone.ca/westfallweeklynews/stories/index.php?action=fullnews&id=22987
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Postby Armenian on Wed Jul 04, 2007 2:18 am

Iran, Hezbollah training Iraqi militants: US

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The US military has accused Iranian special forces of using Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah militiamen for training Iraqi extremists and of planning an attack that killed five US soldiers this year. Brigadier General Kevin Bergner told reporters that US-led forces had captured a senior Hezbollah militant, Ali Musa Daqduq, who confessed to training Iraqi extremists in Iran to carry out attacks in Iraq. Daqduq, a Lebanese, was captured in Iraq's southern city of Basra on March 20, Brigadier General Bergner said, adding he "initially claimed to be deaf and mute".

"In 2005, he was directed by senior Lebanese Hezbollah leadership to go to Iran and work with the Quds Force to train Iraqi extremists," he said. He said the Quds Force, a unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and Hezbollah were jointly operating camps near Tehran in which they trained Iraqi fighters before sending them back to Iraq to wage attacks.

"He (Daqduq) was directed by the Iranian Quds Force to move Iraqis in and out of Iraq and report on the training and operations of Iraqi special groups."

Brigadier General Bergner said the Quds Force was involved in a brazen attack in the city of Kerbala in January when gunmen disguised as Americans made their way into a government compound and killed one US soldier and seized four others whom they later killed. He said the Quds Force's goal was to develop extremist groups into a network similar to Hezbollah, adding that the two were training between 20 and 60 Iraqis at a time. Iran has dismissed the US accusations as "ridiculous".

Meanwhile a car bomb has torn through a popular Baghdad market killing at least 11 people and wounding more than 33. The blast erupted at dusk in the al-Nidawi market in northeast Baghdad. The market is nestled in a densely inhabited mixed neighbourhood in an area roamed by Shiite militias. A US soldier was killed in Iraq on Monday and another five killed the day before in attacks across the country, the US military said.

Source: http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/07/03/1968065.htm?section=world

More on Hizbollah:

A Disciplined Hezbollah Surprises Israel With Its Training, Tactics and Weapons

JERUSALEM, Aug. 6 — On Dec. 26, 2003, a powerful earthquake leveled most of Bam, in southeastern Iran, killing 35,000 people. Transport planes carrying aid poured in from everywhere, including Syria. According to Israeli military intelligence, the planes returned to Syria carrying sophisticated weapons, including long-range Zelzal missiles, which the Syrians passed on to Hezbollah, the Shiite militia group in southern Lebanon that Iran created and sponsors.

As the Israeli Army struggles for a fourth week to defeat Hezbollah before a cease-fire, the shipments are just one indication of how — with the help of its main sponsors, Iran and Syria — the militia has sharply improved its arsenal and strategies in the six years since Israel abruptly ended its occupation of southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is a militia trained like an army and equipped like a state, and its fighters “are nothing like Hamas or the Palestinians,” said a soldier who just returned from Lebanon. “They are trained and highly qualified,” he said, equipped with flak jackets, night-vision goggles, good communications and sometimes Israeli uniforms and ammunition. “All of us were kind of surprised.”

Much attention has been focused on Hezbollah’s astonishing stockpile of Syrian- and Iranian-made missiles, some 3,000 of which have already fallen on Israel. More than 48 Israelis have been killed in the attacks — including 12 reservist soldiers killed Sunday, who were gathered at a kibbutz at Kfar Giladi, in northern Israel, when rockets packed with antipersonnel ball bearings exploded among them, and 3 killed Sunday evening in another rocket barrage on Haifa. But Iran and Syria also used those six years to provide satellite communications and some of the world’s best infantry weapons, including modern, Russian-made antitank weapons and Semtex plastic explosives, as well as the training required to use them effectively against Israeli armor.

It is Hezbollah’s skillful use of those weapons — in particular, wire-guided and laser-guided antitank missiles, with double, phased explosive warheads and a range of about two miles — that has caused most of the casualties to Israeli forces. Hezbollah’s Russian-made antitank missiles, designed to penetrate armor, have damaged or destroyed Israeli vehicles, including its most modern tank, the Merkava, on about 20 percent of their hits, Israeli tank commanders at the front said. Hezbollah has also used antitank missiles, including the less modern Sagger, to fire from a distance into houses in which Israeli troops are sheltered, with a first explosion cracking the typical concrete block wall and the second going off inside.

“They use them like artillery to hit houses,” said Brig. Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser, until recently the Israeli Army’s director of intelligence analysis. “They can use them accurately up to even three kilometers, and they go through a wall like through the armor of a tank.” Hezbollah fighters use tunnels to quickly emerge from the ground, fire a shoulder-held antitank missile, and then disappear again, much the way Chechen rebels used the sewer system of Grozny to attack Russian armored columns. “We know what they have and how they work,” General Kuperwasser said. “But we don’t know where all the tunnels are. So they can achieve tactical surprise.”

The antitank missiles are the “main fear” for Israeli troops, said David Ben-Nun, 24, an enlisted man in the Nahal brigade who just returned from a week in Lebanon. The troops do not linger long in any house because of hidden missile crews. “You can’t even see them,” he said. With modern communications and a network of tunnels, storage rooms, barracks and booby traps laid under the hilly landscape, Hezbollah’s training, tactics and modern weaponry explain, the Israelis say, why they are moving with caution. The Israelis say Hezbollah’s fighters number from 2,000 to 4,000, a small army that is aided by a larger circle of part-timers who provide logistics and storage of weapons in houses and civilian buildings.

Hezbollah operates like a revolutionary force within a civilian sea, making it hard to fight without occupying or bombing civilian areas. On orders, some fighters emerge to retrieve launchers, fire missiles and then melt away. Still, the numbers are small compared with the Israeli Army and are roughly the size of one Syrian division. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards have helped teach Hezbollah how to organize itself like an army, with special units for intelligence, antitank warfare, explosives, engineering, communications and rocket launching. They have also taught Hezbollah how to aim rockets, make shaped “improvised explosive devices” — used to such devastating results against American armor in Iraq — and, the Israelis say, even how to fire the C-802, a ground-to-ship missile that Israel never knew Hezbollah possessed.

Iranian Air Force officers have made repeated trips to Lebanon to train Hezbollah to aim and fire Iranian medium-range missiles, like the Fajr-3 and Fajr-5, according to intelligence officials in Washington. The Americans say they believe that a small number of Iranian operatives remain in Beirut, but say there is no evidence that they are directing Hezbollah’s attacks. But Iran, so far, has not allowed Hezbollah to fire one of the Zelzal missiles, the Israelis say. The former Syrian president, Hafez al-Assad, was careful to restrict supplies to Hezbollah, but his son, Bashar, who took over in 2000 — the year Israel pulled out of Lebanon — has opened its warehouses.

Syria has given Hezbollah 220-millimeter and 302-millimeter missiles, both equipped with large, anti-personnel warheads. Syria has also given Hezbollah its most sophisticated antitank weapons, sold to the Syrian Army by Russia. Those, General Kuperwasser said, include the Russian Metis and RPG-29. The RPG-29 has both an antitank round to better penetrate armor and an anti-personnel round. The Metis is more modern yet, wire-guided with a longer range and a higher speed, and can fire up to four rounds a minute. Some Israelis say they believe that Syria has provided Hezbollah with the Russian-made Kornet, laser-guided, with a range of about three miles, which Hezbollah may be holding back, waiting for Israel to move farther into southern Lebanon and extend its supply lines.

Despite Israeli complaints to Moscow, “Russia just decided to close its eyes,” a senior Israeli official said. In its early years, Hezbollah specialized in suicide bombings and kidnappings. The United States blames it for the suicide attacks on the American Embassy in Beirut and a Marine barracks in 1983. The group became popular in the Shiite south and set up its mini-state there, as well as reserving to itself a section of southern Beirut, known as Security Square. Until 2003, Timur Goksel was the senior political adviser to Unifil, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, which monitors the border. He says he knows Hezbollah well and speaks with admiration of its commitment and organization.

After fighting the Israelis for 18 years, “they’re not afraid of the Israeli Army anymore,” he said in a telephone interview from Beirut. Hezbollah’s ability to harass the Israelis and study their flaws, like a tendency for regular patrols and for troop convoys on the eve of the Sabbath, gave Hezbollah confidence that the Israeli Army “is a normal human army, with normal vulnerabilities and follies,” he added. Now, however, “Hezbollah has much better weapons than before,” he said. Mr. Goksel describes Hezbollah much as the Israelis do: careful, patient, attuned to gathering intelligence, scholars of guerrilla warfare from the American Revolution to Mao and the Vietcong, and respectful of Israeli firepower and mobility.

“Hezbollah has studied asymmetrical warfare, and they have the advantage of fighting in their own landscape, among their people, where they’ve prepared for just what the Israelis are doing — entering behind armor on the ground,” Mr. Goksel said. “They have staff work and they do long-term planning, something the Palestinians never do,” he said. “They watch for two months to note every detail of their enemy. They review their operations — what they did wrong, how the enemy responded. And they have flexible tactics, without a large hierarchical command structure.”

That makes them very different from the Soviet-trained Arab armies the Israelis defeated in 1967 and 1973, which had a command structure that was too regimented. In 1992, when Sheik Hassan Nasrallah took over, he organized Hezbollah into three regional commands with military autonomy. Beirut and the Hezbollah council made policy, but did not try to run the war. Sheik Nasrallah — said to have been advised by the secretive Imad Mugniyeh, a trained engineer wanted by the United States on terrorism charges — thereby improved Hezbollah’s security and limited its communications. It set up separate and largely autonomous units that live among civilians, with local reserve forces to provide support, supplies and logistics. Hezbollah commanders travel in old cars without bodyguards or escorts and wear no visible insignia, Mr. Goksel said, to keep their identities hidden.

Hezbollah began by setting up roadside bombs detonated by cables, which the Israelis learned to defeat with wire-cutting attachments to their vehicles. Then Hezbollah used radio detonators, which the Israelis also defeated, and then cellphone detonators, and then a double system of cellphones, and then a photocell detonator — like the beam that opens an automatic door. Now, Mr. Goksel said, Hezbollah is working with pressure detonators dug into the roads, even as the Israelis weld metal plates to the bottom of their tanks.

Hezbollah, Mr. Goksel says, has clear tactics, trying to draw Israeli ground troops farther into Lebanon. “They can’t take the Israelis in open battle,” he said, “so they want to draw them in to well-prepared battlefields,” like Aita al Shaab, where there has been fierce fighting. He added: “They know the Israelis depend too much on armor, which is a prime target for them. And they want Israeli supply lines to lengthen, so they’re easier to hit.”

Israeli tanks have been struck by huge roadside bombs planted in expectation that Israeli armor would roll across the border, said one tank lieutenant, who in keeping with military policy would only give his first name, Ohad. At least two soldiers from his unit have been wounded by snipers who are accurate at 600 yards. The Hezbollah fighters “are not just farmers who have been given weapons to fire,” he said. “They are persistent and well trained.”

Another tank company commander, a captain who gave his name as Edan, said that about 20 percent of the missiles that have hit Israeli tanks penetrated the Merkava armor or otherwise caused causalities. Col. Mordechai Kahane, the commander of the Golani brigade’s Egoz unit, first set up to fight Hezbollah, told the Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot of one of the worst early days, when his unit went into Marun al Ras in daylight, and lost a senior officer and a number of men.

“Hezbollah put us to sleep” building up its fortifications, he said. “There’s no certainty that we knew that we were going to encounter what it is that we ultimately encountered. We said, ‘There is going to be a bunker here, a cave there,’ but the thoroughness surprised us all. A Hezbollah weapons storeroom is not just a natural cave. It’s a pit with concrete, ladders, emergency openings, escape routes. We didn’t know it was that well organized.”

General Kuperwasser, too, respects Hezbollah’s ability “to well prepare the battlefield,” but says, “We’re making progress and killing a lot of them, and more of them are giving up in battle now and becoming prisoners, which is a very important sign.”

Source: http://travel2.nytimes.com/2006/08/07/world/middleeast/07hezbollah.html?pagewanted=print
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